U.S. airlines are facing what threatens to be their most serious pilot shortage since the 1960s, with higher experience requirements for new hires about to take hold just as the industry braces for a wave of retirements. Federal mandates taking effect next summer will require all newly hired pilots to have at least 1,500 hours of prior flight experience-six times the current minimum-raising the cost and time to train new fliers in an era when pay cuts and more-demanding schedules already have made the profession less attractive. Meanwhile, thousands of senior pilots at major airlines soon will start hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65.
By giving pilots enough daily rest time, another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply. Passenger is forced by this change to increase their pilot ranks of airlines by at least 5%. A a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains has become an additional problem.
"The signs of a global pilot shortage are mounting as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," Boeing wrote in its long-term market outlook. "Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints." According to Boeing, during the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific demand will reach 183,200 pilots, with China accounting for 72,700. "Europe will need 92,500 pilots; North America, 82,800; Latin America, 41,200; the Middle East, 36,600; Africa 14,300; and the CIS 9,900."
The questions remains; where were these pilots trained? The executive director of the National Association of Flight Instructors (NAFI). Jason Blair, as well as the Jonathon Frey (NAFI member) have written a white paper on how pilot training in the United States is about to dramatically change because of increased legislation which mandates airline pilots have 1,500 as well as an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate. This legislation will likely soon become regulation with the recent release of the an FAA notice which proposed the rule making. In summary, captain o9f airlines and first officers would hold an ATP which requires at least 1,500 hours of flight. This comes at the same time when foreign airlines have lowered the minimum flight hour standards under ICAO's multi-crew pilot licensing scheme (which requires 240 hours of flight time).
The unexpected increase introduced by the U.S. Part 121 airline requirements is the compulsory minimum 250 hours of flying experience for ATP and bigger demands of 1,500 hours made on commercial pilots which is the major problem worrying Blair and Freye. The fallout of this would be most airlines will start hiring flight instructors as their pilots. This will undoubtedly lead to more and more instructors joining as commercial pilots and the new aspirants left high and dry.
"In light of new rule making," they wrote in the white paper, "it is unlikely that the flight training industry will be able to offer a continuous supply of qualified pilots to meet the demands of commercial carriers. The industry should not look to the flight instruction community as the training ground for its Part 121 pilots. There will not be enough positions available to meet the experience needs, and it is not a productive approach to the provision of quality flight instruction."
Blair and Freye published some interesting statistics about the pilot population in the U.S. Pilot certificates issued in the U.S. have declined to 93, 861 in 2009 from 156, 955 in 1990. But the commercial/ATP numbers are far lower. In 1990, 15,500 commercial and 8,437 ATP certificates were issued. Those numbers dropped to 11,350 commercial and only 3,113 ATP certificates in 2009. Remember Boeing's outlook, which sees a need for 4,140 new airline pilots per year just in the U.S. during the next 20 years. The Boeing numbers don't include general aviation pilots flying corporate and charter aircraft, flight instructors and other types of working pilots.
The small number of active certified flight instructors (CFIs), according to Blair and Freye is causing more worry.They compared the total number of CFIs in the U.S. to the number of CFIs that have endorsed a pilot for a check ride in the previous five years, to measure whether the flight instructors are active. Only 13.8 percent of the 96,473 CFIs in the U.S. are actively teaching is what they concluded from this. Just 4,348 were added in 2009, down from a high of 8,164 in 1991 and the ranks of new CFIs keep declining.
"There is no feasible way given the current status of the airline pilot training industry, and industry standard training model, to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers," the white paper concluded. "There is no single solution to the predicted pilot shortage. The airlines, the FAA, and the flight training industry acknowledge the problem, but policymakers continue to ignore it. Even the FAA has acknowledged the need for 'creative approaches to pilot training.' Interim solutions may necessarily encompass reductions in service to match a sustainable level of qualified airmen; finding service alternatives if domestic carriers cannot provide a level compatible with demand; and developing a training process that, while cost effective and possibly different from current proposals, also meets the skill level and competency required of the airline environment. None of these solutions includes leaving the system as it is currently. If forecasts about the pilot shortage come to fruition while licensure rates continue to decline, change will be inevitable for the flight training industry."
By giving pilots enough daily rest time, another federal safety rule, to take effect in early 2014, also will squeeze the supply. Passenger is forced by this change to increase their pilot ranks of airlines by at least 5%. A a small but steady stream of U.S. pilots moving to overseas carriers, many of which already face an acute shortage of aviators and pay handsomely to land well-trained U.S. captains has become an additional problem.
"The signs of a global pilot shortage are mounting as airlines expand their fleets and flight schedules to meet surging demand in emerging markets," Boeing wrote in its long-term market outlook. "Asian airlines in particular are experiencing delays and operational interruptions due to pilot scheduling constraints." According to Boeing, during the next 20 years, Asia-Pacific demand will reach 183,200 pilots, with China accounting for 72,700. "Europe will need 92,500 pilots; North America, 82,800; Latin America, 41,200; the Middle East, 36,600; Africa 14,300; and the CIS 9,900."
The questions remains; where were these pilots trained? The executive director of the National Association of Flight Instructors (NAFI). Jason Blair, as well as the Jonathon Frey (NAFI member) have written a white paper on how pilot training in the United States is about to dramatically change because of increased legislation which mandates airline pilots have 1,500 as well as an airline transport pilot (ATP) certificate. This legislation will likely soon become regulation with the recent release of the an FAA notice which proposed the rule making. In summary, captain o9f airlines and first officers would hold an ATP which requires at least 1,500 hours of flight. This comes at the same time when foreign airlines have lowered the minimum flight hour standards under ICAO's multi-crew pilot licensing scheme (which requires 240 hours of flight time).
The unexpected increase introduced by the U.S. Part 121 airline requirements is the compulsory minimum 250 hours of flying experience for ATP and bigger demands of 1,500 hours made on commercial pilots which is the major problem worrying Blair and Freye. The fallout of this would be most airlines will start hiring flight instructors as their pilots. This will undoubtedly lead to more and more instructors joining as commercial pilots and the new aspirants left high and dry.
"In light of new rule making," they wrote in the white paper, "it is unlikely that the flight training industry will be able to offer a continuous supply of qualified pilots to meet the demands of commercial carriers. The industry should not look to the flight instruction community as the training ground for its Part 121 pilots. There will not be enough positions available to meet the experience needs, and it is not a productive approach to the provision of quality flight instruction."
Blair and Freye published some interesting statistics about the pilot population in the U.S. Pilot certificates issued in the U.S. have declined to 93, 861 in 2009 from 156, 955 in 1990. But the commercial/ATP numbers are far lower. In 1990, 15,500 commercial and 8,437 ATP certificates were issued. Those numbers dropped to 11,350 commercial and only 3,113 ATP certificates in 2009. Remember Boeing's outlook, which sees a need for 4,140 new airline pilots per year just in the U.S. during the next 20 years. The Boeing numbers don't include general aviation pilots flying corporate and charter aircraft, flight instructors and other types of working pilots.
The small number of active certified flight instructors (CFIs), according to Blair and Freye is causing more worry.They compared the total number of CFIs in the U.S. to the number of CFIs that have endorsed a pilot for a check ride in the previous five years, to measure whether the flight instructors are active. Only 13.8 percent of the 96,473 CFIs in the U.S. are actively teaching is what they concluded from this. Just 4,348 were added in 2009, down from a high of 8,164 in 1991 and the ranks of new CFIs keep declining.
"There is no feasible way given the current status of the airline pilot training industry, and industry standard training model, to continuously supply qualified pilots for the demand of air carriers," the white paper concluded. "There is no single solution to the predicted pilot shortage. The airlines, the FAA, and the flight training industry acknowledge the problem, but policymakers continue to ignore it. Even the FAA has acknowledged the need for 'creative approaches to pilot training.' Interim solutions may necessarily encompass reductions in service to match a sustainable level of qualified airmen; finding service alternatives if domestic carriers cannot provide a level compatible with demand; and developing a training process that, while cost effective and possibly different from current proposals, also meets the skill level and competency required of the airline environment. None of these solutions includes leaving the system as it is currently. If forecasts about the pilot shortage come to fruition while licensure rates continue to decline, change will be inevitable for the flight training industry."
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